Chuang Yuan futures cotton researcher again Yi Nur believes that the recent strength of the textile sector is mainly affected by the improvement of clothing consumption at home and abroad. In December 2023, the total retail sales of domestic social consumer goods reached 4,355 billion yuan, an increase of 7.4% year-on-year and 2.46% month-on-month. From January to December 2023, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 47,149.5 billion yuan, up 7.2% year on year.

Among them, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, needle textile products in December was 157.6 billion yuan, an increase of 26%, an increase of 4.86%, the cumulative retail sales from January to December was 1409.5 billion yuan, an increase of 12.9%, indicating a strong recovery in domestic textile and apparel demand. Us retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in December, above expectations of 0.4% and 0.3%, the largest increase since September last year. As the world's largest clothing consumer market, the performance of the United States has also brought optimistic expectations to the market, increasing the market's confidence in the United States clothing wholesalers to enter the active replenishment cycle in advance. The pessimistic expectations of global consumption have weakened, superimposed since December 2023, textile and garment raw materials cotton and cotton yarn prices have been strong, and many factors have pushed funds to flow to the textile sector and stock prices have strengthened.

Li Min, a cotton researcher at Huishang Futures, said that in the short term, the trigger for the strength of the textile and garment sector may be the textile and garment consumption data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on January 17 continued to pick up, and the improvement of downstream sales orders has emerged.

In the long run, the root cause of the strength of the textile and garment sector may lie in the policy support behind the recovery of demand data. Throughout the year, China's trade in goods has shown a significant upward trend, especially the recent growth rate of import and export in renminbi has picked up for four consecutive months. The Central Economic Work Conference in 2023 proposed to expand high-level opening to the outside world, which pointed out the direction for foreign trade work in the future period, and China's foreign trade was further consolidated in a stable and good trend. In addition, in 2024, China is expected to strengthen foreign trade cooperation with countries co-built by the "Belt and Road", including the signing of new trade facilitation agreements, the establishment of free trade areas, the implementation of tariff reduction, and so on. Coupled with the further release of RCEP dividends, the trade volume between China and countries jointly built by the "Belt and Road" will maintain a relatively rapid growth momentum in 2024.

"In 2024, the overall scale of China's foreign trade will expand, the quality and efficiency will improve, and the export will accelerate." Li Min said that to a large extent, this further validates the logic of consumption recovery in 2024.

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