Since 2023, the national series of policies to promote consumption have continued to take effect, the consumption scene has fully recovered, and residents' income and consumer confidence are gradually recovering. In the context of "strong expectations", the chemical fiber industry ushered in a "weak recovery", the supply side of high production, high start, start load in the off-season is not weak, exceeding market expectations; However, the average price of the main chemical fiber products has declined, the volume has risen and contracted, and the pressure on corporate profits is still prominent. In terms of quarters, the impact of the Spring Festival factors this year is larger than in previous years, the performance of the industry in the first quarter is sluggish, the second and third quarters are gradually repaired, and the overall profit of the industry has improved. In addition, the export performance of chemical fiber is better, especially the cumulative export growth of polyester products in the first three quarters of more than 20%.

Basic information about the operation of the industry

(1) Production and marketing

Since March, the overall load of the industry has basically remained at a high level. Taking direct spinning polyester filament as an example, the average load in the second quarter is about 84%, and the average load in the third quarter is about 90%; October entered the traditional peak season, downstream demand is still acceptable, the average load is still maintained at 90% level. In addition, although the Asian Games led to the reduction and production of some devices in the Xiaoshao area, it was basically restarted after the National Day holiday.

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the production of chemical fiber from January to September 2023 was 52.3 million tons, an increase of 6.86% over the same period last year, 7.18 percentage points higher than the growth rate in the same period last year. The growth rate of chemical fiber production showed a gradual upward trend, and the growth rate from January to September was 2.96 percentage points higher than that from January to June. From January to September, chemical fiber production in Zhejiang Province increased by 4.7% year on year; The production of chemical fiber in Jiangsu Province increased by 19.6%. Fujian chemical fiber production decreased by 7.6% year-on-year.

In the first three quarters, the overall inventory of the industry is in good condition, especially in the middle and low inventory in June to September. Inventories have picked up since October. As of the end of October, the average inventory of polyester POY, polyester staple fiber and nylon is about 20 days, 15 days and 23 days respectively, which is still basically in the normal range, but the inventory days of spandex are relatively high, which has reached 39 days.

(2) Market price

From the perspective of the price trend of the polyester industry chain, polyester prices basically follow the trend of crude oil prices, rising slightly in the first quarter, falling in the second quarter, and rising in the third quarter. In the first two quarters, crude oil has mostly remained in the range of $70-80 / barrel. In the third quarter, affected by the suspension of macro interest rate hikes and Saudi production cuts, crude oil prices opened the rising mode, rising as high as 32.62%, and more than 90 US dollars/barrel in the middle and late September; PTA and polyester prices rose with raw materials, but the increase was limited, only rising by about 10%. Since October, crude oil has fallen in shock, PTA and polyester have followed the decline, and the current price has fallen back to the low price at the end of the second quarter.

In terms of the nylon industry chain, the price trend was stable compared with last year, and the price increase in the third quarter was more obvious, and reached the high point of the year in mid-late September. From the perspective of the price increase of the industrial chain in the first three quarters, nylon slicing > nylon POY, FDY> raw material CPL.

In terms of spandex industry chain, the price level is far less than last year, the price rose in the first quarter, and reached the highest price in the year in mid-February, the price fell in late March, and the price has been basically maintained since May. From the perspective of the price increase of the industrial chain in the first three quarters, raw material PTMEG rose by 17.86%, while spandex products fell by about 3%.

(3) Import and export information

According to Chinese customs statistics, the total export volume of major chemical fiber products from January to September was 4.73 million tons, an increase of 19.0%. The overall export of chemical fiber continued to maintain a growth trend, and the growth rate from January to September was 1.6 percentage points higher than that from January to June. By product, polyester filament and polyester staple fiber drove export growth, nylon filament was basically flat, and other products decreased year-on-year. Among them, since the beginning of this year, the average monthly export of polyester staple fiber is 100,000 tons, and the overall export is strong, far exceeding the level of the same period in previous years. In addition, the export growth rate of polyester bottle flakes has slowed down, and the cumulative growth rate has turned negative since August.

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Changzhou Fubon Chemical Fiber Machinery Factory Technical production: Polypropylene spinning machine, polypropylene FDY spinning machine, polypropylene FDY equipment, polyester POY spinning machine, polyester POY production line, polyester POY equipment, polyester POY machinery, polyester recycled bottle FDY spinning machine, polyester FDY spinning machine, polyester FDY machinery, Spandex spinning machine, spinning special parts, polyester small Experimental machine, polypropylene small experimental machine, nylon small experimental machine.

Changzhou Fubon Chemical Fiber Machinery Factory Technical is a research and development and production of all kinds of chemical fiber machinery as the main professional manufacturing suppliers, research, development, production and sales as one, in order to meet the market demand, our factory has established a perfect chemical fiber spinning experimental base, to provide customers with good equipment and technical services. We mainly provide customers with complete sets of polyester, polypropylene, nylon, spandex and other chemical fiber complete sets of equipment, and undertake a variety of related equipment renovation projects and customized services.