In the third quarter, the epidemic and weather is warm, and the superimposed last year is higher, and the worst retail is lower than expected. 1) The spinning service is more than 19 years, but the growth rate is falling uploaded monthly. From January to August 21, the clothing shoes and hats, the social retail sales of tendons increased by 24.8% year-on-year to 856.5 billion yuan, including +12.8% / + 7.5% / - 6.0% year-on-year, respectively, 6-8 months. Last year, the changing trend on the monthly lifting trend formed contrast. 2) Online consumption is also facing pressure, and September e-commerce market is not ideal. According to the third party platform, September is a total of 33% / 19% / 46% / 37% of women's clothing / home textile sales in September.

3) The weather is cold and the epidemic is repeated, causing the end consumption power. According to the statistics of China Meteorological Bureau, the average temperature in the country is more than 1.3 / 0.3 / 1.6 ° C from the same period of the year, and the average temperature in September has achieved the highest record since 60 years. The number of high temperature days of the south is more than three-10. Heaven, suppressed the demand for clothes.

Goblin sports brand scene lead: 1) Anta Sports: It is expected that 21Q3 Anta brand, FILA flow water increased by 10-20% year-on-year, DESCENTE, KOLON and other outdoor new brands. 2) Li Ning: The most domestic representative domestic product, expect 21Q3 flow water to increase by about 30% year-on-year, and the water during the National Day is slightly higher.

Middle-high-end clothing is stronger than the public: 1) Torffen: Sponsor national golf team shines Tokyo Olympics, brand force supports the fast display store, and 21Q3 return to net profit is expected to grow. 2) Xinhe Shares: Summer low goods, overlay, e-commerce, expected 21Q3 return, net profit, year-on-year growth. 3) Haishu House: It is expected that 21Q3 return to net profit is a double-digit decline. August 27, I hired Ge Wenyao as a strategic consultant, and the main brand was upgraded. 4) Taiping Bird: It is expected that 21Q3 return to net profit is a double-digit decline, focusing on 95-00 consumer group, accelerating the establishment of endowment capabilities that match the fashion track. 5) Senma Clothing: It is expected that 21Q3 return to net profit is better than the 19-year double-digit decline, and the children's clothing Balabala flows well in Sen Ma brand.

Home textile faucet once again proved growth: 1) Luolai life: There is still growing at 20Q3 high groups, and 21Q3 is expected to grow in a year-on-bit number. 2) Fu Anna: 21h1 active outdoor show results, expect 21Q3 return to net profit year-on-year growth. 3) Mercury Home Textile: High Growth of Online Channels, It is expected that 21Q3 return to net profit is greater than double-digit growth.

Textile manufacturing shows high elasticity: 1) Hua Li Group: customer structure optimization, production capacity expansion, expect 21Q3 return to net profit close to 21Q2 peak season level, at around 700 million yuan. 2) Ashizhen International: Due to the gradual return of restricted capacity due to Vietnamese epidemic, it is expected that the annual output can still achieve year-on-year growth, and the knitting faucet is difficult to shake. 3) New Australia shares:

Product Structure Optimization Promotes the extension of the peak season, and it is expected that 21Q3 return to net profit continues to grow high, and the history is high, demand logic is gradually verified. 4) Bailong Oriental: Announcement Vietnamese production capacity returns to 75%, the benefician cotton price is rising, and the net profit of 21Q3 is expected to grow in a higher multiples.

Investment analysis comments: Q3 performance prospects are stronger than brands, but the weather is only extension, the season purchase needs, not disappearing, long-term optimistic optimism, scarce manufacturing, environmentally friendly fiber rise. Recommended: 1) Excellent domestic brand: Anta Sports, Perefen, Xinhe Shares, Haishu House, it is recommended to pay attention to Li Ning. 2) Low valuation, high-growth home textile faucet: Luolai life, Fu Anna, Mercury home textile. 3) Touch Champion of Textile Manufacturing: Huali Group, New Australia, Bailong Oriental, suggesting to pay attention to Nashizhou International.